Escalating Oil Prices and Fed Funds Rates Preceded Every Recession Since 1957

In 1997, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, while still an academic, wrote a famous historical study for the Brookings Institution: “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks” with Mark Gertler and Mark Watson.

It began by documenting that “essentially all the U.S. recessions of the past thirty years have been preceded by both oil price increases and a tightening of monetary policy.” So here we are again tightening monetary policy at a time of unaffordable oil price increases.