Pennsylvania GOP Senate poll shows close race for top three contenders

Recent polling for Pennsylvania's competitive Republican Senate primary shows a close split among the top three candidates, with each pulling roughly a quarter of survey respondents ahead of next week's primary.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, David McCormick, and Kathy Barnette are polling between about 21% and 25%, according to the latest Trafalgar poll conducted May 6-8. The survey included 1,080 respondents and had a 2.99% margin of error.

Oz, a celebrity doctor and former President Donald Trump's endorsee, took the top spot in the survey, with 24.5% saying they would vote for him if the primary were held that day. Military veteran Barnette came in second with 23.2%, and McCormick, a former U.S. Treasury official, was third with 21.6%.

Barnette has surged in the polls in recent weeks, jumping from a low fifth place last month, with a RealClearPolitics average of 8.8%, to now being neck and neck with the most high-profile candidates.

Another Trafalgar poll for the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race put state Sen. Doug Mastriano ahead by 10 points in the Republican primary.

The race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is a key target of both major parties due to Pennsylvania's position as a swing state and the current 50-50 Senate split. Trump won by less than 1% in 2016, and President Joe Biden won by a narrow margin in 2020.