Why Republicans are favored to win the Senate — and how Democrats could stop them

Democrats’ control of the 50-50 Senate could well be washed away by a red wave in this fall’s midterm elections.

Republicans appear favored to win back the Senate for two simple reasons. First, the national environment has moved in their favor. Biden’s approval rating is low. The GOP has improved in generic ballot polls and won the governor’s seat in Virginia last November.

Second, the Senate is already split 50-50, so a net gain of even just one seat for Republicans would flip the chamber into their hands.

However, Democrats do still have a way to hold on. The main thing they have going for them is a decent map — they aren’t defending any seats in states Trump won in 2020, while Republicans are defending two states Biden narrowly won. If Democrats manage to hold their losses to a minimum, or make up for them by defeating Republicans elsewhere, they could keep Senate control. But if the national environment keeps looking so dire for the party and the president, that would be a tall order.