Biden's remarks on Russia should worry Ukraine

President Biden’s comments Wednesday regarding Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine are unlikely to reassure the government in Kyiv that the United States “has its back.” In a White House news conference, the president was unambiguous regarding a likely American and NATO response to a full-blown Russian invasion, but he indicated that the level of Russia’s aggression might determine the response. 

Russia no longer could do any business in dollars if it invades its neighbor, Biden said; it would be excluded from the SWIFT system for international funds transfer. He would subject Moscow to severe sanctions, including — if he can convince the Germans — termination of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Biden said he would work with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to move more forces to Poland, the Baltic States and Romania, and would ensure that the Black and Baltic seas remain as open international waterways. 

The U.S. will continue to provide defensive weapons to Ukraine, above the $600 million worth of systems already promised or transferred. Indeed, Biden reportedly will authorize the transfer of Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles to Ukrainian forces, possibly via a third party.

It appears, however, that should Russia mount something less than a full invasion, the Western response would be far more limited. Biden said as much and, when pressed on the matter, would say only that if Russia launches a cyber attack, the United States will respond in kind.