Biden's goal of 500 million free tests will require major production scale-up

Meeting President Joe Biden’s goal of offering 500 million free at-home Covid tests for Americans will require a massive scale-up in test manufacturing that may take months to achieve — falling short of demand as the omicron variant drives a surge in infections.

The U.S. had a supply of around 200 million at-home rapid tests in December. Test makers have indicated they will be able to increase that to just over 500 million a month by March with added capacity from current manufacturers and the recent clearance of two new tests from Roche and Siemens in the past week, according to estimates from Mara Aspinall, a health professor at Arizona State University who tracks the testing market.

Not all those tests will go to the federal government’s free testing effort. A White House official said the 500 million free at-home tests will come from additional supply the administration is anticipating will be added.

But even with new tests being approved and manufacturers racing to expand capacity, the number of new tests available is expected to grow just modestly in January while Roche and Siemens begin packaging and shipping their product, ramping up more significantly in February. That means it could take several months for the federal government to meet its goal, according to production targets from the manufacturers and Aspinall’s estimates.