Biden Must Choose Between Appeasement and Deterrence in Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden’s virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday did not resolve the military crisis threatening Ukraine, but it did clarify two matters. First, it confirmed Russia’s demands for legal guarantees to constrain future NATO enlargements and force deployments—without, apparently, a quid pro quo from Russia. Second, U.S. sources made public details of the sanctions Russia could expect if it carries out a fresh invasion of Ukraine.

These developments help resolve the intense, sometimes polemical, debate on how the West should respond to Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border. All sides agree that Russia’s desire to alter the status quo has created the crisis, and that a direct military confrontation between Russia and the West would be catastrophic. They differ on how to respond. There are broadly three positions: that Moscow is bluffing, that it poses a real threat to Kyiv and Ukraine should make concessions, or that Washington and its allies must threaten a strong response to deter further Russian aggression.