Census data release starts redistricting scramble that could help GOP win House

Let the redistricting scramble begin.

The Census Bureau on Thursday will release the data used to draw voting districts, setting up a scramble of map-drawing and litigation ahead of the 2022 midterm elections that could influence the balance of power in the House.

The release of the detailed once-per-decade data was delayed due in part to the coronavirus pandemic, squeezing the timeline for legislatures and state commissions to draw and finalize the lines and maps before primary elections begin.

Some states will see bigger changes in their maps than others. The Census Bureau in April announced that seven of the House’s 435 congressional districts would shift states due to changes in population. Forty-four states will have an opportunity to chisel new lines, with six staying the same because they have only one at-large House member: Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

Working through the nitty-gritty details behind drawing lines cannot start until states have the detailed population information from the Census. Map-drawers must ensure roughly equal populations in each district and make the maps comply with Voting Rights Act requirements concerning race and ethnicity, among other regulations.

One factor that map-drawers can consider, as the Supreme Court ruled in 2019, is the partisan makeup of the districts.

House Republicans are looking to the redistricting process to upend the five-seat Democratic majority in the 435-member chamber. Rep. Ronny Jackson, a Texas Republican elected in 2020, said as much at a conservative conference hosted by Faith & Freedom Coalition on June 18.

"We have redistricting coming up, and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country," Jackson told the audience. "That alone should get us the majority back.”

But it may not be so simple.