Trump and Biden Trade Barbs on Social Security but Avoid Substance

Social Security has become a flashpoint in the presidential campaign in recent weeks, with both candidates accusing the other of undermining the program, and each insisting he won’t cut benefits.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and President Trump have launched a series of ads in key swing states targeting older voters. So far, however, the debate has overshadowed the substantive issues the winner will likely need to confront, including the toll the coronavirus pandemic has taken on Social Security’s shaky long-term finances.

“Social Security is the third rail of politics,” said Shai Akabas, economic policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank. “If you can stick the other candidate’s hand on that third rail, then you’re potentially going to electrocute them. I think that’s what both parties are effectively trying to do, without really talking about the crux of the issue.”

Policy makers have known for years that one day, benefits paid to millions of older and disabled Americans will have to be cut unless Congress acts to shore up the program. That prospect has seemed distant enough not to require immediate action.

The recession has accelerated the day of reckoning.

The Congressional Budget Office this month said reserves from the old-age and survivors insurance trust fund, which finances the program, will now be exhausted in 2031, one year earlier than previously predicted. And reserves for disability benefits will likely run out in 2026 rather than lasting through the decade, the CBO said, potentially leading to an immediate benefit cut absent congressional action.

Even that timetable may be too optimistic, Mr. Akabas said, based on a report the Bipartisan Policy Center is preparing. A prolonged, lackluster economic recovery could mean the old-age trust fund reserves run dry in 2030 and disability reserves peter out by 2024.