Was Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Responsible for 250K Coronavirus Cases?

In September 2020, social media was abuzz over a report from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics that linked 266,796 COVID-19 coronavirus cases (a figure that was reported as “more than 250,000” in various headlines) to the Sturgis motorcycle rally held in Sturgis, South Dakota:

IZA Institute of Labor Economics truly did publish a paper estimating that the rally was linked to a surge of approximately 250,000 COVID-19 cases (representing a cost of $12.2 billion). However, while the rally likely contributed to a rise in coronavirus cases, the figures stated here are estimates from a non-peer reviewed paper and have not been...