What's Next For Iran Following the Death of President Ebrahim Raisi?

How will the death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi impact the future of Iran and the wider region? 

The Ayatollah’s Successor: Jim Geraghty (Lean Right bias) determined that Raisi “was seen as a potential contender to be Ayatollah,” the Supreme Leader of Iran. Following Raisi’s death, Geraghty speculated that the Ayatollah’s son is now the front-runner for the position. He dismissed claims that United States’ sanctions contributed to the crash, writing, “There’s about a 99.9 percent chance this was an accident caused by terrible weather conditions, difficult terrain, and a bad decision to fly in those conditions.”

New Chapter of Instability: An analysis in the New York Times (Lean Left bias) determined Raisi’s death “opens a new chapter of instability” in Iran, which is already “consumed with internal political struggles” amid the declining health of the Ayatollah. Despite these strains, analysts “expect little change in Iran’s foreign or domestic policies” moving forward. The article concluded by stating, “The larger question is whether the Revolutionary Guards, already a major economic player domestically, will become more openly powerful politically as well.”

Fresh Uncertainty: An article in CNBC (Center bias) echoed this, stating that Raisi’s death adds “into fresh uncertainty at a time when it already faces deep economic decline, popular discontent and war.” The article outlined Raisi’s short time as president, highlighting the protests across Iran following the death of a woman in the custody of the Iranian morality police in 2022, concluding, “Hundreds of people were killed during the crackdown.”