ACA Premiums Projected to Rise 26% in 2026, KFF Analysis Finds

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released rate information for 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans on the federal Healthcare.gov marketplace on Wednesday, just days before the start of open enrollment on November 1.

The Details: An analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates that premiums for ACA “benchmark” silver plans will rise about 26% in 2026, with 30% average increases on Healthcare.gov and 17% in state-run exchanges. CMS said most enrollees will still qualify for financial assistance under the original ACA tax credits, with over 90% receiving some help. It also said about 60% of consumers will find plans costing $50 or less per month after subsidies, down from 83% in 2025. The Paragon Health Institute said the end of enhanced subsidies explains only 4% of the projected 20% premium hike, pointing instead to broader structural issues and rising healthcare costs.

For Context: The enhanced ACA tax credits were first introduced under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package passed in 2021, and later extended through the Inflation Reduction Act. These credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress takes action. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that roughly 3.5 million fewer Americans could have health coverage by 2027 if the enhanced subsidies are not renewed. It also estimates that extending the subsidies would cost the federal government about $23 billion in 2026 and about $350 billion over the next decade. 

How the Media Covered It: The New York Times (Lean Left bias) highlighted the potential impact on individual Americans through an interactive map, comparing different income levels and ages. It also highlighted the subsidies as central to the ongoing government shutdown. Breitbart (Right) cited the Paragon Health Institute, and emphasized the minimal impact of the Obamacare credit expiration on the premium increase and highlighted the role of other contributing factors. It also pointed out that the enhanced credits subsidize wealthy Americans and benefit big insurance companies. The Hill (Center) focused on the potential for premium increases and the potential impact of the expiration of enhanced tax credits. 

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