Health Experts Speculate About Herd Immunity In The U.S.

Nearly one year into widespread COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, vaccine rollouts and a decline in new cases have health experts speculating about when the country will reach herd immunity. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, surgeon and Johns Hopkins School of Medicine professor Marty Makary said he believes herd immunity to the virus would be when 60% to 80% have been infected or vaccinated, and that the U.S. could reach the number by April. According to Makary, about 8% of the population has been infected and 15% of the population vaccinated; additionally, he said, since many COVID-19 cases are not recorded because not everyone gets tested, he estimated the real number is possibly 55%, and that the 60% threshold could be reached by April. Others warn that herd immunity depends on several factors that vary by region, such as restrictions, vaccination rate and infection rate. In addition, some warn it is still unknown how long immunity from vaccines will last or how current vaccines will protect against new variants of the virus. On Sunday, former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CBS he thinks the U.S. may never reach full herd immunity against the virus, saying "Covid is going to continue to circulate at a low level." Some outlets across the political spectrum provided analysis as to when herd immunity could be achieved. Makary's op-ed received wide coverage from the right and less coverage from left- and center-rated outlets, though it was covered by Mediaite and Newsweek.