Widely-Cited Climate Economics Study Pulled Over Data Issues

On Wednesday, the science journal Nature (Center bias) retracted a 2024 study projecting severe economic damage from climate change, citing errors found in the data. Media on the right suggested the errors drove poor economic decision-making, while media on the left characterized the revisions as minor and stressed that they still show climate change is a major threat to the economy.

The Details: For the study, economists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research compiled historical data from roughly 1,600 regions worldwide over four decades. It analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events on agriculture, labor productivity and infrastructure; results estimated that global economic output could decline 62% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario–far more than previous studies. 

Why Was It Retracted? An error in data from Uzbekistan between 1995-1999 disproportionately influenced the global forecast, according to the retraction published by Nature. Without Uzbekistan, the projected decline in global economic output by 2100 fell by 23%, not 62%. 

For Context: According to the Wall Street Journal (Center), the research had been widely cited in media reports and incorporated into risk models used by central banks and financial supervisors, including the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the US Congressional Budget Office and the World Bank. 

Related: Bill Gates Pivots on Climate Change: 'World's Poorest Deserve Our Help'

Damage to the Economy? The New York Post (Lean Right) suggested the study already negatively influenced economics; it emphasized that the study was pulled, "but not until after central banks around the world had used it to create risk management scenarios." Similarly, Townhall (Right) said "significant damage may already have been done" as the study "may have pressured" major financial institutions to hold additional reserves as a safety net, slowing economic growth.

Climate Threat Still Exists: ABC News (Lean Left) emphasized the retraction doesn't change the threat of climate change. Its coverage examined the updated data to 2050, which highlighted a smaller drop in global income from 19% to 17% and a decrease in the estimated probability that midcentury damage costs would exceed resilience-building, 99% to 91%. The New York Times (Lean Left) wrote, "erasing 20 percent of the world's economic activity would still be a devastating blow to human welfare," and cited other studies showing climate change as a "major threat." It mentioned the original study found damages over the next 25 years could cost six times more than limiting warming to 2°C, the goal of the Paris Climate Accord.

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