Hispanic Voters, Abandoning Trump, Are Transforming the Midterm Map

President Trump's enormous gains among Hispanic voters in the last election propelled him to victory in the national popular vote and prompted talk of a political realignment. Two years later, that talk is over.

In an average of high-quality national polls over the last month, Democrats led Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 percentage points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress.

That would mark an extraordinary reversal since 2024, when the same pollsters found Kamala Harris leading Donald J. Trump by an average of only seven points among Hispanic voters in their final surveys.