I understand that President Trump is not averse to making an occasional wager, and I am assuming that when he does so, he considers the odds. I would have liked to have had a chance to brief him on the results of a study I did a number of years ago before the Iran War started. At the time, I was teaching a class on military theory, and I did an analysis of the success rate of the states that started conventional wars of the 20th Century. I'd like to think that the results would have sobered Mr. Trump.
Of the 15 conflicts I examined, the side that started the war lost 10 of them. Three were won (I adjudged two to be ties); my choices can be debated, but in any case, the odds for the initiator are very poor. Discounting the ties, the odds for success by the initiating actor are alarmingly low at 23.08 percent. (RELATED: The Iran War: Trump Must Choose Between Victory and Defeat)
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