Have projected 2040 carbon dioxide emissions been revised downward by 40% in the past decade?

Emissions projections for 2040 have dropped, but not by 40%. The 2024 International Energy Agency forecast for yearly global CO2 emissions in 2040 was 31 gigatonnes, 18% lower than the 38 Gt predicted in 2014. This reflected scenarios that considered current and announced short-term policies (at the respective times). Global carbon emissions were 37.8 Gt in 2024.

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