Is the US headed for a recession?

Donald Trump has a gift for inheriting valuable things. And the economy of January 2025 was no exception.

When the president took office, stock values were hitting record highs, unemployment was hovering near historic lows, and consumer confidence was stable. Wall Street expected that business conditions would only improve. Among investors, conventional wisdom held that Trump was serious about corporate tax cuts — but not about launching an unprovoked trade war against America’s closest allies (a proposition too pointless and self-destructive to be sincere).

Times have changed. Contrary to corporate America’s wishful thinking, Trump has made good on his promise for large tariffs on Chinese goods, steel and aluminum from all countries, and many Mexican and Canadian imports, triggering retaliatory tariffs from America’s trade partners. Largely as a result of these developments, US stock markets forfeited six months of gains in three weeks, while consumer confidence fell precipitously. All this has led countless Americans to ask whether their economy is headed for a recession (Google searches for that word have skyrocketed since the beginning of March).