Could Republicans really lose a Senate race in Nebraska?

Nebraska’s statewide seats have been solidly Republican for years: The party has won a majority in the last five Senate races, the last seven governor’s races, and the last 14 presidential elections.

This cycle, however, independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn — a Navy veteran and former union chief — appears to be making the race much more competitive than it normally is. According to a New York Times/Siena poll released in late October, incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer was up by just 2 percentage points, winning 48 percent support to Osborn’s 46 percent. That’s surprisingly close for a Senate race in the state: In 2018 and 2020, Fischer and former Sen. Ben Sasse (R) won their elections by well over 10 points.

Osborn has successfully upended what should have been an easy race for Fischer by framing himself as an outsider, as well as a candidate who’s not beholden to — and doesn’t fit in with — either party.