Republicans’ Chances of Taking the Senate Are Looking Great

Even if Harris sweeps the swing states and wins the White House, a whole lot would have to go wrong for the GOP to remain in the Senate minority.

Conservatives are rightly concerned that Donald Trump may lose to Kamala Harris. They should not be worried about the Senate, however. The lineup of states with competitive Senate races, combined with the current polling and historic relationship between presidential and Senate outcomes, means the GOP has a near lock on winning Senate control.

Democrats currently hold 48 Senate seats and are supported by three nominal independents. That gives them an effective 51–49 majority and allows them to control the chamber’s agenda. Republicans thus need to gain two net seats to retake control in the event that Harris and Walz prevail.