And the Winner from Putin’s War on Ukraine Is … Azerbaijan

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t play out the way Vladimir Putin hoped, but it’s proving an unimagined boon for his fellow authoritarian leader in neighboring Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev has never been as politically secure as he is today.

Sadly, that success is just adding to evidence, if more were needed, that when dictators feel strong, they tend to use their increased confidence for repression rather than for political and economic reform.

Aliyev has won big from Russia’s invasion on multiple fronts. In July last year he signed a deal with the European Union to double natural gas exports to the bloc, as it scrambled for new energy sources to fill the void left by Russian supplies lost to sanctions. New infrastructure has to be built to make that possible, but increased sales and prices together raised revenue from the ex-Soviet nation’s oil and gas sectors from $19.5 billion in 2021, to $35 billion in 2022. Those fossil fuels accounted for more than 92% of Azerbaijan’s exports and over half the state budget.