A poisoned chalice awaits Turkey’s election winner: The economy

Don't envy whoever wins Turkey's election this month. The victor could immediately be blown off course by strong economic headwinds. 

In the first decade of his 20-year rule, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan rode an economic boom — driven in part by manufacturers and exporters from conservative Anatolian heartlands that supported his ruling AK Party — turning Turkey into one of the buzzing emerging markets to watch. Robust growth — averaging more than 7 percent annually between 2002 and 2007 — was once Erdoğan's proudest boast.

Over the second decade of his rule, the story was exactly the opposite, as the president took absolute control over monetary policy and insisted on his unorthodox theory that high interest rates cause inflation. Prices raged out of control and debates over the cost of staples, from onions to cucumbers, have figured prominently in the run-up to the May 14 election.