What COVID might look like in the U.S. once we reach the endemic phase

If it feels like everyone you know has COVID-19 right now, you're not alone. In many parts of the U.S., case numbers are going up, and much of that increase is being driven by subvariants of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

And this new wave of cases might be a glimpse into what the endemic stage of COVID-19 will look like, according to Andy Slavitt, a former senior adviser to President Biden on COVID-19 and a former head of Medicare and Medicaid in the Obama administration.

The U.S. is not in an endemic phase just yet, Slavitt said, and the country likely won't know until after it's in it because, as he put it, "the best definition of endemic that I've heard is just when the surprises are gone and it becomes predictable."

"Endemic doesn't necessarily mean everybody's safe, and endemic doesn't necessarily mean people are no longer losing their lives. It just means it's following a predictable pattern. And what we don't know, but we may be witnessing, are some clues as to what a predictable pattern will look like when we settle into one."