The 7 Races That Will Likely Decide Control Of The Senate

Senate Democrats have spent the past few months wrestling with President Biden’s social spending plan, voting rights legislation and the future of the filibuster. But now that 2022 has begun, they must now contend with the prospect of defending their exceedingly narrow majority in Congress’s upper chamber. Democrats control the bare minimum of 50 seats, along with Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote, meaning Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take control.

But Democrats may actually have a better chance of retaining control of the Senate than they do the House, as the president’s party isn’t as susceptible to a midterm penalty in the Senate as it is in the House. That’s in part because only about one-third of the Senate is up each cycle, and the competitiveness of the seats up for election can vary a lot. To this point, Democrats could actually stand to benefit in 2022 because they don’t have to defend any seats in states former President Trump carried in 2020, while Republicans must protect two seats where Biden won — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

However, thanks to how the electoral environment is shaping up and the low threshold Republicans need to surpass in order to regain a Senate majority, things are still looking pretty good for the GOP. In total, there are 34 seats up this November, but based on the median race rating from election handicappers at Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, there are just nine seats at this point that aren’t classified as safe for one party. And it’s the seven seats in this category that are currently marked as toss-ups or leaning toward one party that will likely decide the fate of the Senate in 2022.