US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years

Americans hoping for near-term relief from soaring prices got a dose of disappointment on Monday after a panel of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) significantly ramped up their expectations for inflation since they were last canvassed in September.

Nearly three quarters – 71 percent – of the 48 economists surveyed see the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy –  not falling to or below the Fed’s 2-percent year-over-year target rate “until the second half of 2023 or later,” said NABE vice president Julia Coronado who is also the founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC.

Underlying the extended rise in inflation expectations are the fatter paycheques Americans are commanding, thanks to a near-record number of job openings.

“Two-thirds of the panel expect wage increases will keep inflation elevated over the next three years,” said survey chair Yelena Shulyatyeva, who is also senior US economists with Bloomberg.