Florida COVID-19 surge to peak next week, researchers project

Florida could hit the peak of its latest COVID-19 surge next week with some 23,000 cases, with herd immunity to follow in mid-September, according to an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida.

Edwin Michael, PhD, professor of epidemiology at the USF College of Public Health, projected the peak will occur on Aug. 24, and along with the current pace of vaccinations, the state could see herd immunity by Sept. 11. Herd immunity was defined as 90% of the population with antibodies from prior infection or vaccination.

The projected peak in infections declined from a prior estimate of 31,000 cases on Aug. 30, owing to an uptick in vaccinations and stronger voluntary adherence to social mitigation measures, he said. However, the highly transmissible delta variant was blamed for the fast approaching prediction on Aug. 24.