Coronavirus cases are rising. Will deaths follow?

Two weeks before Independence Day, the United States had a legitimate reason to celebrate. After more than a year of worry and restrictions that followed the emergence of the coronavirus, the number of new cases each day had fallen to a little over 11,000, the lowest level since the virus first emerged in March 2020. The rapid vaccination of millions of Americans had cut off potential hosts. Combined with warmer weather that pushed people outside, the virus was far less able to gain ground.

Over the past two weeks, though, the picture has been different. Thanks in part to the spread of the delta variant, the number of cases in the United States has shifted upward. The average number of new cases at this point is 76 percent higher than it was two weeks ago, the biggest increase since last July. Following the pattern we’ve seen over the past year, hospitalizations have also increased.

The urgent question now becomes: Will the number of deaths increase, too?