IHME Model Estimates 93,765 U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials has increased its projections of the number of coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 4 to 93,765.

The projection is based on key assumptions about the implementation of social distancing policies, the IHME said in a statement released on Wednesday:

These estimates assume the strong continuation of statewide social distancing measures in places where they are already enacted, and future adoption within the next seven days in states without them. If such policies are relaxed or not implemented, the US could experience a higher COVID-19 death toll and hospital burden than what our models currently predict.

The model now projects 12,651 more deaths in the United States than it projected five days ago when its first projection of 81,114 coronavirus deaths was announced on March 26. The model’s estimation of coronavirus deaths has increased with every published update. On Monday, March 30, at 6:00 a.m. Pacific Time, the model projected 82,141 coronavirus deaths by August 4. Just 24 hours ago, on Tuesday, March 31, at 6:00 a.m. Pacific Time, the IHME model projected 83,967 coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 4.