Florida’s upcoming gubernatorial race may find itself to be more controversial and consequential than even Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s successful bid for New York City mayor last year. As a global entertainment hub, the third most populous US state, and home to one of the US’ most diverse populations of 23 million people, one race between Republicans could shape Florida for years to come.
Recent redrawing of congressional districts has given Republicans a leg up in Florida elections, and with the Republican nominee likely to be the victor in the governor’s race, the Republican primary is the real contest.
The most notable Republicans in the Florida primary are Rep. Byron Donalds, the Trump-endorsed candidate, and James Fishback, a former businessman and populist. Donalds leads in polling by large margins, but Fishback has seen an unprecedented growth in social media following and has prominent support from Gen-Z.
What is there to know about this divide on the right? And what does the rise of right-wing populist figures like Fishback mean for Florida?
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A Race Worth Watching
Florida’s gubernatorial race will be watched closely throughout the country, much like the mayoral race in New York City. The governor of Florida is in charge of one of the most influential and populous states, and Florida policy often acts as a national conservative blueprint for other states to follow.
However, what this particular race highlights is not the growing political power of Florida conservatives, but a divide within the conservative movement itself. It suggests the emergence of a rivalry between an alt-right movement committed to the “America First” tenets of MAGA and a Republican establishment that blends MAGA with neoconservatism.
Expectedly, some conservatives have remained MAGA loyal, while others broke ties with President Donald Trump in search of greater transparency, peace, and affordability.
Congressman Thomas Massie, a vocal critic of Trump and purportedly ‘America First,’ recently lost his reelection bid after Trump called for voters to reject him. Trump claimed Massie was the “worst congressman in the history of our country” and that he voted against Republicans and “good values.”
After Massie lost his seat to Ed Gallrein, Fishback posted on X, “No election result changes the fact that Thomas Massie is an American patriot. AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) may have won this battle, but they will lose the war. America First will prevail.”
This divide is significant between the Trump-led conservative establishment and the so-called “woke-right,” a label applied to figures like talk show host Nick Fuentes, who is known for controversial commentary on race, women, and Jewish people. Fuentes has endorsed Fishback in the primary.
Establishment vs. Insurgency
Trump’s 2016 campaign was laden with anti-establishment rhetoric, with Trump labeling his campaign an “existential threat” to the political establishment. In 2024, affordability, ending foreign wars, and lowering the national debt were prominent elements of Trump’s campaign, alongside slamming neocons and other establishment figures like former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris. But now, many former MAGA supporters have suggested Trump’s administration itself has become the establishment.
James Fishback said on a podcast with the conservative Hodge Twins (Right) that Trump’s version of “America First” (in 2024) means defending American allies to the detriment of American citizens. Fuentes exclaimed on his talk show that Trump broke the GOP coalition by not delivering on promises, cutting Medicare and taxes for the rich, and starting a regime change war with Iran.
Fishback and Fuentes represent a new insurgent right-wing that, while a minority, purports a nationalist populist platform centered around affordability, tightening immigration reform, and ending US involvement in foreign affairs. According to the new right-wing, Trump’s administration has failed to effectively implement mass deportations, end foreign wars, and make America more affordable - representing a degradation of the populist MAGA movement into an dishonest, ineffective establishment.
Many believed Mamdani’s platform was too woke-left and socialist to win – but he did. If Fishback wins Florida in November, the woke-right, too, will have secured itself an official seat in American politics.
Who is James Fishback?
James Fishback is a former hedge fund executive who worked as a financial consultant in his 20s, later founded a student debate organization, and most recently caught the spotlight for consulting on the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), originally raising the idea for $5,000 DOGE dividends for working-class Americans.
Importantly, Fishback is only 30 years old, and he’s a political outsider. Much like Trump’s initial bid in 2016, Fishback enters the arena with private sector experience and a populist vision for Florida.
Fishback calls his platform “America First,” where key policies include skepticism of H1-B visas and immigration, opposition to the construction of AI data centers, renewal of American jobs and agriculture, stopping corporations from buying houses and homes, and opposition to US aid in foreign wars, particularly the US-Israel entanglement.
His platform appeals to many disenfranchised Floridians, most notably Gen Z, who are most concerned about cost of living, job opportunities, and wars that don’t necessarily benefit them. Moreover, Fishback’s platform resembles Trump’s 2024 campaign, which successfully drew voters old and young with a platform that purported affordability, no new wars, and immigration enforcement.
Fishback supporters find that Trump has not cracked down enough on immigration, he has started more wars than he’s ended, and prices for essential goods and services are through the roof. Trump’s administration has become, to some on the right, an ineffective, dishonest establishment – thus Fishback stands today where Trump stood in 2016.
But Fishback is doing it differently. Where Trump laughs at political correctness, Fishback sets it ablaze, as he has gained popularity among the youth for his comical names for his opposition. He often refers to his Trump-endorsed opponent as “By’rone” Donalds” or “AIPAC Shakur,” and has also called Donalds a “slave to donors.” He has used the term “goyslop” to refer to school cafeteria food, a term based on the Hebrew word for non-Jews that was popularized by Nick Fuentes.
While being disavowed by mainstream Republicans, insurgent figures on the right like Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes have endorsed or pledged support for Fishback. Distinct from traditional conservatism, neocons, and Trumpism, Fishback’s platform promises the populist elements of anti-establishmentism and federalism.
His views may be radical, and to some may seem anti-American, but this is nothing new. Much like successful campaigns in the past, his populist platform follows the playbook’s of Trump and Mamdani, appealing to the youth and working class, promising affordability, and standing up against the deep-state.
Furthermore, Fishback’s momentum has been extreme, garnering almost 400,000 instagram followers in less than five months, packing auditoriums full of youth and community members, and appearing on notable media platforms such as Tucker Carlson (Right), Piers Morgan (Lean Right), Jack Neel, NewsNation (Center), CNN (Lean Left), OAN (Right), and The Hill (Center).
Will the New-Right Win Florida?
What is the reality of Fishback and this new right-wing winning the Florida Governor’s office?
270toWin polling shows Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary race by significant margins, while Fishback and two other candidates hover in the single digits.
Emerson College polling conveys a similar message, with results that suggest Donalds may lead a landslide victory in the gubernatorial primary. One notable caveat is that 39% of Republican voters remain “undecided,” suggesting the true outcome remains uncertain as of now.
Fishback posted a poll on social media from a lesser known polling index named the Public Sentiment Institute, which suggests Fishback would lead the Democrat candidate for governor, David Jolly, by five points in the general election. The poll also notes that Donalds and Jolly are tied at 40% each, suggesting Fishback may actually have an electability edge on the Trump-backed candidate.
Fishback currently markets himself as an underdog, amassing hundreds of thousands of followers in mere months through his comedic, populist messaging. His events and rallies have appeared successful, such as 500+ in attendance for a speech at the University of Florida.
However, his support is concentrated among young people and online communities. Fishback’s biggest challenge will be surviving large-scale biographical scrutiny as we near the election. His edgy, provocative politics will likely hit a ceiling come time to appeal to the larger Florida population.
We witnessed in the 2024 general election and various 2025 elections that powerful social media campaigns have translated to Gen Z voter turnout, making Fishback’s notable online presence one of the strongest indicators that he could seriously challenge Donalds as we near August.
Fishback’s popularity with young Americans does convey some evidence of the shifting ideological bounds for conservatives, and perhaps the normalization of radical ideas that have historically been considered fringe. However, this is not atypical, as the rise and fall of radical ideas often coincide with the presence of political and economic turmoil.
What Mamdani’s success illustrated was a growing, and not unprecedented, public interest in populist campaigns that promised affordability and reform. Much like Mamdani’s anti-elite platform of socialism and taxation, Fishback’s anti-elitism targets the MAGA establishment, Israel, and big tech.
While Fishback has condemned white supremacism and white nationalism, he is also the candidate most aligned and representative of groups like Fuentes’ base, who frequent the Nazi/Roman salute.
Fishback and his constituents represent a Republican fracture similar to what we’ve seen with Democrats and Mamdani’s unforeseen rise to prominence. His popularity highlights a new generation disillusioned by elites and establishment figures associated with Trump, as well as a frustrated conservative faction who want to see real populist change — a reality not so different from what we witnessed in 2016.
Gabriel Spathelf is the founder, chairman and CEO of Pathway America, and a former AllSides intern. He has a Center bias.
Reviewed by Product Manager Evan Wagner (Lean Left bias), News Assistant Malayna J. Bizier (Right), and Editor-in-chief Henry A. Brechter (Center).