States have been on a tax-cutting spree, but revenues are now weakening

Fueled by surging revenues, states have been slashing taxes for individuals and businesses for the past three years.

But the party is expected to come to an end in the coming fiscal year, which started on Saturday in 46 states. Revenue is projected to decline by 0.7% in fiscal 2024, based on forecasts used in governors’ budgets, after an estimated 0.3% dip this fiscal year, according to a recently released National Association of State Budget Officers survey.

This reversal comes after double-digit percentage increases for the prior two fiscal years. It reflects...