No Majority Reached in Israeli Election, Netanyahu to Stay as Leader

With over 95% of the votes counted from Israel's Tuesday parliamentary election, no clear ruling coalition has emerged, though barring a political breakthrough, Prime Minister Benjamin is expected to remain the country's leader.

The Results: Tallies showed Netanyahu's coalition bloc slated to win 53 or 54 seats, and the politically diverse anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot expected to win 48. Preventing either bloc from hitting the 61 required for a majority are the Arab parties, which are expected to win 18 or 19 seats. Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the most popular by a significant margin, expected to win 27 seats, compared to Eisenkot's Yashar's 21. Naftali Bennett's opposition Together Alliance won 12, and the Arab Joint List won 11. Combined with Ra'am, which is currently expected to win 8 seats, the Arab parties have notched a historically successful result and will almost double their previously held 10 seats. Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to lose five of the 32 seats it held in parliament – though outlets across the spectrum, like The New York Times (Lean Left) and Fox News (Right bias), noted that it outperformed pre-election opinion polling.

Kingmaking: Both major blocs will require the Arab parties' seats to reach 61 seats and form a government. In theory, both the Joint List and Ra'am will independently have enough seats to put Netanyahu's bloc in power, while Eisenkot's bloc would need the support of both parties to get there. Still, outlets have framed the cooperation of the Arab parties with either bloc as unlikely. Qatari outlet Al Jazeera (Lean Left) published an analysis that noted both blocs said they will not cooperate with the Arab parties and that "observers don't believe" it will happen either. The New York Times floated the ideas of a "historic Jewish-Arab alliance" where the Arabs join the opposition bloc, or "a unity government" where Likud, Yashar, Together, and right-winger Yisrael Beytenu all team up.

What's Next?: Until a government can be formed, Netanyahu will remain in power. Reuters (Center) wrote, "Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister during any coalition negotiations and ​potentially until another election next year. While a caretaker government faces some constraints, experts say it retains powers, including over the war with Iran."

Foreign Influence: On Thursday, Israel's Central Elections Committee chair Justice Noam Sohlberg asked intelligence to investigate "serious suspicions" of foreign interference in the vote, with some Israeli outlets reporting suspicions of Qatari funding influence operations aimed at Arabs.

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