David Crowley Pulls Off Upset Over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic Primary for Governor

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary on Tuesday.

The Details: Crowley suspended his campaign weeks ahead of the election, but he reentered days later with an endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers (D), who chose not to seek a third term. NBC News (Lean Left bias) called the move "part of a last-ditch push by moderate Democrats to find an alternative to Hong," a state assemblywoman.

Crowley, 40, secured his victory with a narrow lead of about 0.4%. Hong, 37, did not call for a recount in her concession. Crowley is now set to face Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) in the general election on November 3rd. Tiffany, 68, smoothly secured his primary victory with support from President Donald Trump.

Data Comparisons: Outlets across the political spectrum noticed a stark juxtaposition between prediction surveys and the primary results, though roughly a third of respondents in the surveys were undecided. Newsweek (Center) stated, "The polling in the race appears to have severely underestimated Crowley, with every public survey showing Hong as the clear front-runner." It furthered, "In the hours since Crowley's primary win, Democrats' chances of holding the governor's office have surged on prediction markets."

Why The Win:

• Party Divisions: NBC suggested the close political divisions within the state contributed to Hong's primary defeat. Newsweek furthered this narrative in reporting, "Establishment Democrats had worried that a Hong win would make it easier for a Tiffany victory in November, as her platform would be a tougher sell among moderate and independent voters who are critical in the swing state known for razor-thin election margins." The outlet also gave voice to a critic who said voters' skepticism "reflected a structural reality of governor's races rather than bias against Hong specifically."

  Daily Caller (Right) cited a lack of support from "high profile leftists" and said, "Hong may be too 'woke' for [Alexandria] Ocasio-Cortez… Although Hong's views were shared by many in the Democratic Party, including Ocasio-Cortez, it appears that some liberals were trying to distance themselves from her." The Caller pointed specifically to Hong's previous calls to "cancel Thanksgiving."

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• Campaign Finances: "The Hong campaign and groups supporting her spent less than a half-million dollars on ads," while Crowley's campaign and affiliates spent four million, according to AdImpact data cited by NBC. "Meanwhile, a group tied to the Republican Governors Association has spent nearly $3 million on ads casting her as too liberal – an apparent effort to boost the party's preferred general election opponent in the primary."

What It Means For Democrats: NBC framed Crowley's win as a "setback for progressives," but Newsweek reported that establishment Democrats "see Crowley as having the best chance of beating [Tiffany] in November."

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