Trump, GOP Lose Latino Support Ahead of Midterm Elections; Support for Democrats Remains Divided

Fifty-nine percent of Latinos favor a Democrat-led Congress, according to an NBC/Telemundo survey published on Sunday.

The Data: The survey of 800 registered Latino voters, conducted in late September, found that just 35% of respondents favored a Republican-led Congress, doubling favor for Democrats since September 2024. The survey also found the following:

• President Donald Trump: 27% overall approval; 69% overall disapproval
• The Democratic Party: 41% overall positive viewpoint; 42% overall negative viewpoint
• Economy: 74% disapproval for Trump's handling; 25% approval for Trump's handling; 48% favor of Democrats' policies; 27% favor of Republicans' policies
• Cost of Living: 78% disapproval for Trump's handling; 20% approval for Trump's handling; 45% favor of Democrats' policies; 26% favor of Republicans' policies
• Immigration: 67% say Trump "has gone too far;" 22% say Trump "has taken the right approach"

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The data also showed a 27% negative viewpoint of capitalism, compared to a 44% positive viewpoint; a 41% negative viewpoint of socialism, compared to a 13% positive viewpoint; a 58% negative viewpoint of the MAGA movement, compared to a 24% positive viewpoint; and a 37% negative viewpoint of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), compared to a 28% positive viewpoint.

Sixty-eight percent of respondents said "things in the nation" are "off to the wrong track."

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How The Media Covered It: Media on the left covered the poll data more prominently than media on the right. Politico (Lean Left bias) suggested the decline in approval for Trump "might cost Republicans control of Congress" due to rising energy costs. It highlighted the division in approval of Democrats but also that "Negative views of the GOP, meanwhile, have climbed to 62%, up from 46% in September 2024."

The Hill (Center) asserted that "support among Hispanic voters has plummeted from 2024," citing inflation and Trump's campaign promises to lower consumer prices. It also suggested the Trump administration's mass deportations as muddying Latino support, but it also gave voice to Trump who called immigration enforcement "the hardest job" on Wednesday. "They'll say you're too tough or you're too soft. Get tougher, get softer. No matter what you do, it's always tough."

Fox News (Right) echoed the sentiment that "Democrats hold a huge advantage over the GOP among Latino voters." However, it also reported, "The GOP still shows drastic improvement among Latino voters over the last decade," citing 21% and 26% support for a Republican-led Congress in 2016 and 2018, respectively.

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For Context: Forty-two percent of Latino adults supported the US-Mexico border wall in 2024 – a 12-point increase from a poll conducted in 2021 – according to an Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll. And while 38% supported deporting unauthorized immigrants, 65% supported a pathway to citizenship.

Thirty-six percent of respondents expressed favor for Democrats, compared to 16% for Republicans. Thirty-two percent expressed favor for Trump, who, at the time, was campaigning for president. Ahead of the 2024 elections, Democrats had a roughly 12-point lead among Latino voters. Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, the NBC/Telemundo poll found inflation and cost of living to be the "most important" issues for Latino voters.

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