How Ohio’s ballot vote could preview the 2024 politics of abortion

The ballot initiative Ohio voters will decide Tuesday is likely to demonstrate again the continuing public resistance to last year’s Supreme Court decision ending the nationwide constitutional right to abortion – while also offering an early indication about how broadly that backlash may benefit Democrats in the 2024 election.

Ohio voters are facing a measure placed on the ballot by state Republicans that would require future initiatives to change the state Constitution to receive 60% of the vote to be approved. The change would apply to amendments on all subjects, but the campaign has become a proxy test of attitudes about abortion in the state. Almost everyone agrees Republicans and their allies in the anti-abortion movement have advanced this proposal to end majority rule on ballot initiatives because they fear that a majority of Ohio voters will support a separate ballot initiative in November to overturn the six-week abortion ban approved by the GOP-controlled state legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine.

Abortion rights advocates are feeling confident about winning both today’s vote and the follow-on election in November to restore abortion rights in the state. “If I were on the ground in Ohio, I’d be feeling very good about the work I was doing,” said Angela Vasquez-Giroux vice president of communications and research at NARAL Pro-Choice America, a leading abortion rights group.