Wagner insurrection creates opening for Ukrainian counteroffensive

Ukraine‘s highly touted counteroffensive to regain territory seized by Russian invaders had shown little progress in its initial days, but that was before the near-coup in Moscow and the possible removal from the battlefield of thousands of Wagner Group mercenaries, a key backbone of Russian ground operations over the past year.

While Ukrainian troops continue to be slowed by a range of factors, including scores of landmines planted by Russia along the 600-mile front in the country’s east, most military analysts agree the recent upheaval presents an opportunity for Kiev — if only to seize on the Russian military’s already shaky morale and willingness to fight.

“The best things the Ukrainians have going for themselves is their courageous military and Russia‘s self-inflicted wounds, of which there are many at this point,” said Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA officer who served as the agency’s Moscow station chief.

Even prior to the short-lived but intense mutiny by Wagner Group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian troop “morale already was low,” Mr. Hoffman, who writes a regular opinion column for The Washington Times, said in an interview Tuesday.

“This is now going to be a forever kind of hit to the Russian army,” he said. “The fact that Ukrainian forces are in the fight and killing Russians means Russian troop morale is only going to get worse.”