The Futile Search For A Magic Number That Says It’s Safe To Reopen

The three months since the first American case of COVID-19 was reported have been a never-ending parade of grim statistics: death counts, fatality rates, the steady climb of cases reported and cities locked down.

Starting this week, Americans got a glimpse of a more optimistic set of figures: what it will take for the economy to return to normal.

So far, 31 states have announced plans to allow businesses to reopen and social life to begin to resume. Though they differ in specifics, each state’s strategy is based on quantitative metrics intended to demonstrate that the coronavirus is under control. In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker wants more than 80% of COVID-19 tests to come back negative. In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo will allow cities to begin their phased reopening plans when they have fewer than five deaths per day, 30% of ICU beds free and 30 contact tracers for every 100,000 residents.

These guidelines will take on critical importance as America enters the next stage of the pandemic. City and county officials will use “readiness criteria” to request permission from governors to reopen their economies.