The Insight: Where Israel and Gaza Stand 3 Years After Oct. 7

Where Israel and Gaza Stand 3 Years After Oct. 7

A look at the last 1,000 days.

The Insight provides you the full picture of facts and viewpoints on a top issue for Americans each week, powered by your questions and balanced answers from our multipartisan news team.

The Questions

What do key metrics tell us about the long-term regional shift three years after October 7?

Casualty totals

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) and a separate study published in The Lancet each estimate over 75,000 fatalities among Gazans in the past three years, and the MoH estimates over 170,000 have been wounded. The MoH does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its public reporting.

The Israeli Defense Forces say that since the roughly 1,200 Israelis killed on Oct. 7, 2023, roughly 900 more have been killed, mostly IDF soldiers.

According to The Telegraph (Center), a researcher at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem called The Lancet study into question over what he called “biased” methodology.

Physical infrastructure destruction

The United Nations estimates that over 80% of structures on the Gaza Strip have been damaged or destroyed in the past three years. A UN spokesperson said that figure rose at least 9% after the October 2025 ceasefire.

Israeli officials have long questioned the framing of that statistic, arguing that thousands of the targeted civilian buildings had been modified for military use.

Hostages and Prisoners

According to previous agreements, Hamas has returned all living and deceased Israeli hostages.

Israel currently holds thousands of Palestinian detainees and prisoners:

“At the end of June 2026, the Israel Prison Service (IPS) was holding 9,187 Palestinians in detention or in prison on what it defined ‘security’ grounds, including 1,554 from the Gaza Strip. At that time, the IPS was also holding 2,075 Palestinians, 27 of them from the Gaza Strip, for being in Israel illegally,” according to the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories.

A report published yesterday by Haaretz (Lean Left) detailed some of the things going on inside these prisons.

Current borders, displacements, and blockades

Israel maintains a physical perimeter around Gaza, including a concrete and steel barrier equipped with remote weapons, ground sensors, and electronic surveillance. Security is especially tight along the Egypt-Gaza border.

Israel also enforces a naval blockade off the coast of Gaza, and Gaza has no operational airport.

In addition, all commercial goods and international humanitarian aid sent to Gaza undergo security screening by Israeli defense authorities prior to entry.

A recent report from the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) alleged “that the roughly 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza, or 86% of the population, living in displacement sites often face inhumane living conditions.”

Israel says its continued operations in and around Gaza prevent militant attacks and stop weapons smuggling.

How has the war reshaped American politics — and where do the major disagreements actually lie?

The conflict has amplified the already sensitive Palestine “issue” and raised it to a level of prominence in social and political discourse previously unseen.

In both establishment politics and casual citizen discourse, it’s clear that dispositions towards the dispute between Israel and Palestine itself and US involvement in it do not fit neatly into the domestic US left-to-right spectrum.

The progressive left has long been a champion of advocating for Palestinians, often focusing on human rights, war crimes, and the imbalance of power between Israel and Gaza. It is also in line with some of the more classical left views regarding military intervention.

More recently, however, the progressive view on the issue has also created a foreign policy “horseshoe effect” and struck a chord with conservative populists, such as Candace Owens (Right) and Tucker Carlson (Right), who have become some of the loudest mainstream voices criticizing more US military aid for Israel. Populist conservatives often cite philosophies like “America First” or non-interventionism as reasons they are skeptical of more aid for Israel.

Nonetheless, there’s no shortage of full-throated support for Israel in American politics or media, with many outlets and politicians across the spectrum showing a bias in favor of it. This more establishment-friendly view often frames Israel as a core strategic ally and insurgent organizations in the Middle East, or the Islamic Republic of Iran, as threats to both regional and global security.

While it’s difficult to sum up such a deeply-seated and heightened issue in a few short paragraphs, there are many things to consider when trying to diagnose the philosophies behind these modern alignment shifts

Among them are a wide array of overlapping factors such as maritime commerce and energy prices, American military interests abroad, domestic political influence, the role and practice of Judaism in Western countries, and international human rights standards.

How has American and international public opinion changed since October 7, and where are the major divides?

In general, public opinion in the US has shifted to favor Israel less over the past three years, though this should not be conflated with support for Hamas. Additionally, public opinion on the Israeli government has worsened more substantially than support for Palestinians has improved.

According to polls by Gallup (Center), about 54% of Americans that were polled sympathized more with Israelis in 2023 before October 7; now only about 36% of Americans hold that belief, representing an 18% decrease.

Other Gallup data showed that Americans who held a favorable opinion of Israel has also dropped from 68% in early 2023 to now just 46%.

There is currently a large split between Republicans and Democrats, with 70% of Republicans sympathizing more with Israelis, and 65% of Democrats sympathizing more with Palestinians. However, even within the Republican Party, there is a significant split on the issue based on age. According to Pew Research (Center), 57% of Republicans under the age of 50 view Israel unfavorably, and a majority of Republican voters over 50 view Israel more positively.

Outside of the US, international opinions on Israel’s actions in Gaza have also deteriorated. Additional Pew research surveyed people in 36 different countries and found that 67% of adults have an unfavorable view of Israel while only 25% have a favorable view.

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How are global markets, supply chains, and international alliances adapting to prolonged Middle East instability?

Media and commentators across the spectrum have continuously remarked on how the conflict affects energy prices and affordability, and that discourse has continued as of late.

According to The Wall Street Journal (Center) on October 7, “supply optimism” has caused oil prices to decline recently, with Brent crude for December delivery down 0.4% at $100.20 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November down 1.3% to $88.28 a barrel.

The Journal said “Futures have declined in three of the past four sessions on optimism about the amount of oil that is making it out of the Persian Gulf despite the conflict remaining unresolved.”

Frost Investment Advisors analyst Chris Cook was cited as saying, “I think people are looking at the markets with a positive lens and the expectation is that we’re getting close to 90% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that “If it wasn’t for the fuel costs for the transportation and the insurance that’s getting tacked on, we’d probably be in a much lower price environment right now.”

(Source: Google Gemini)

However, Reuters (Center) reported October 6 that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised the oil price forecast for both this year and next, “as global stockpiles fall rapidly and diesel markets remain tight due to the ongoing Iran war.”

Reuters also highlighted the “exceptionally tight diesel supplies," saying this is “boosting demand for crude as refiners seek to maximize diesel production.” Notably, in September President Trump was reportedly considering a US export ban on diesel fuel as prices soared, a move that has been ruled out after G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves.

An opinion from Creators Syndicate (Not Rated) said the Iran war “is no longer merely a Middle Eastern war,” explaining that “It is becoming a contest over the international order itself, with Russia and China operating increasingly in the shadows and avoiding direct confrontation while exploiting disorder, protecting their interests and expanding their strategic reach.”

The authors said the “visible conflict is alarming enough,” but the “war behind the war” is “something potentially more consequential.” Russia and China, they added, “do not need to fire directly upon American forces to benefit from this war,” explaining that “They can provide Iran with diplomatic protection, commercial lifelines, technology, intelligence advantages and access to international markets all while publicly calling for peace.”

At home in the US, the issue on many people’s minds are the climbing gas prices which have sparked debates recently over both affordability and policy.

Some on the right, including Trump, have argued that while the gas prices are high, they were higher yet during the Biden administration when they reached a national record average of $5/gallon.

Others, like opinion writer Lindsay Owens for The Boston Globe (Left), said that with technology today, companies can use a “little algorithmic smoke and mirrors–and a lack of competition” to “manufacture the appearance of scarcity,” blaming the elevated prices more on price gouging than geopolitical issues.