Conflicting Reports Emerge on Whether Ukraine Has Gained Territory Back From Russia

According to a new report from the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces gained control of 116 square kilometers (sq km) of territory in April, but separate data highlighted by the The New York Times (Lean Left bias) shows otherwise.

The Details: The change follows a similar trend from 2025, in which Russian forces made large gains in the late fall and winter that slowed as spring came. In March, Russia gained just 23 sq km, compared to 204 in March 2025. In April 2025, Russia gained 188 sq km. 

When accounting for Russian "infiltrations" which the ISW says "are often collocated among Ukrainian positions in contested "gray zones," Ukraine lost 28 sq km of territory in April and 32 in March. The ISW said, "The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain."

Another Narrative: Several mainstream outlets noted the ISW's new data, but The New York Times published a report on separate data from Finland's Black Bird Group, a self-described "independent, non-governmental secu

rity analysis and intelligence organization" that focuses on the Ukraine conflict. Black Bird's data showed a slightly different story – that Ukraine actually made a small territorial gain in February, but that Russia began to gain territory again in March, and significantly built upon those gains in April. Still, The Times framed the situation in Ukraine as dire for Russia, which it says is facing setbacks and beginning to stall out.

For Context: In February, the ISW said Ukraine recaptured 78 square miles of territory from Russian forces, marking its fastest gain in over two years. In August, mainstream outlets covered an ISW report that Russian troops had deeply protruded past the Ukrainian frontline.

How The Media Covered It: The ISW's recent figures were not covered by many mainstream outlets. Though authors didn't cite the ISW, opinions in The Economist (Left), Christian Science Monitor (Center), and Noah Rothman (Lean Right) of National Review (Right) briefly mentioned Ukraine's alleged April gains. In his opinion, Rothman described a changing political climate in Russia that could be weakening the Putin government.

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