Is Recession Staring Us Down? Already Upon Us? Here’s Why It’s Hard to Say.

The United States is not in a recession.

Probably.

Economic output, as measured by gross domestic product, fell in the first quarter of the year. Government data due this week may show that it fell in the second quarter as well. Such a two-quarter decline would meet a common, though unofficial, definition of a recession.

Most economists still don’t think the United States meets the formal definition, which is based on a broader set of indicators, including measures of income, spending and job growth. But they aren’t quite as sure...