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Three weeks is a lifetime in politics—in fact, three weeks can be three lifetimes in politics. So, let’s start with the premise that anything can happen between now and Election Day. But it looks like the hole in which Donald Trump and the Republicans find themselves is getting deeper by the day.
For most of the year, Republicans have been hoping for a fast end to the Iran war, a leveling off of food and gas prices and most of all, that Trump would become a more reliable and a more consistent messenger on the topics that the GOP believed would carry them to victory this fall. But the war is not over, inflation is still rising, and Trump is certainly not on message—or anywhere close to it.
Trump’s week started with a two-day imbroglio about whether Iran would bomb Los Angeles and San Diego. It ended with him back in a geopolitical bro-mance with Vladmir Putin, calling for the people of Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelensky for opposing the Russian diesel agreement, and threatening Norway for not giving him the Nobel Peace Prize. For good measure, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President J.D. Vance are in a public disagreement about whether executions should be televised.
These are not the midterm messages Republicans want to be closing on.
The Washington Post did an excellent analysis this week of the themes that the two parties have been emphasizing in their paid advertising as the campaign enters its closing weeks. GOP candidates are running ads about wages, tips and taxes, corruption and crime, with a healthy dose of immigration. While crime and immigration are staples in Trump’s speeches, the news he has been making is much more about Iran and Ukraine than the affordability concerns that are driving most voters’ decisions. For a president who ran two years ago on his promise to end “forever wars” and reverse the inflation that occurred during Joe Biden’s presidency, these are not winning issues.
Trump’s gambit at the end of last week to restart international shipments of diesel fuel is emblematic of his predicament. He realizes that voters are angry about continued high prices and that his own rural political base is especially unhappy about these growing costs. Agreeing to allow Putin access to world markets that have been denied to Russia will probably not decrease fuel costs in a meaningful way and certainly not prior to the election. But it has ignited an international firestorm that is reminding voters in this country of their discomfort with Trump’s historically close relationship with the Russian leader.
Republicans need Trump back on message—but they’re not counting on it. This week, the president travels to Alaska to campaign for yet another endangered GOP incumbent. Back in the lower 48, his party’s candidates are distancing themselves from him on the Iran war, tariffs, immigration, and food prices. It’s worth assuming that Republicans in closely contested House and Senate races will spend this upcoming week squirming when asked about Putin, executions or the president’s other less resonant messages.
The same Post analysis also examined the ads that Democrats are running most frequently. Like Republicans, their primary focus has also been on economic matters, although much more on inflation than taxes, as well as corruption and health care. But Democratic candidates are also talking about Trump in their advertising, much more than Republicans are including the president in their own spots.
By this past weekend, Trump was theorizing about renaming either the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. “We call it ‘Trump Ocean’ or ‘Ocean of the Americas,’ something like that,” he told an audience at a rally in a rural Tennessee congressional district that he carried by 22 points in 2024. In the meantime, the two parties are now spending money in longtime deep-red bastions like Kansas and South Carolina, and House Speaker Mike Johnson is now speculating about what he might do for a living after concluding his career in Congress while his colleagues discuss who will replace him if they are back in the minority next January.
The MAGA base is loyal, polls can be misleading and Republicans still have a massive money advantage. But early voting has started and voter attitudes are hardening. Without a pronounced course correction—and soon—the GOP could be looking at a very long election night and an even longer two years.
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