Decline in Trans Identification Among Youth: Culture Shift or Policy Symptom?

Multiple studies in recent years suggest a possible shift away from gender transition treatments and transgender identities in minors. What exactly might these studies suggest, and how can one accurately attribute the results?

How Trustworthy Is The Data?

Media across the political spectrum often skew data through word choice, slant, unsubstantiated claims, and mind reading, a commonality strongly exhibited in the polarized stances on transgender youth. 

Word Choice

The broad vernacular of outlets on the left and right is especially pertinent when relating to sex and gender. Outlets on the left frequently use terms such as “anti-trans” and “restrictive” when referring to legislation that limits minors’ access to gender transition treatments. Meanwhile, outlets on the right often use terms like “mutilation” and “coercion” when referring to legislation that supports such treatments.

Furthermore, data covering youth’s “desistance” is not equivalent to data covering “detransitions.” “Desistance” often refers to the halting of transition treatments, while “destransitions” refers to the reversal of surgical and/or prescription treatments. Some research, however, does not make that distinction.

RELATED: “Gender-Affirming Care” or “Medical Procedures”? Both Sides of Transgender Terminology | AllSides

Slant

Outlets on the right generally attributed lowered transgender youth rates to an overall culture shift. The Federalist (Right bias), for example, cited a German study that found a 72.7% non-persistence/desistance rate among adolescent females over a 5-year period, and the highest persistence rate at less than 50%. Another study it cited found that “‘Of the 139 participants [who were diagnosed with gender identity disorders as children], 17 (12.2%) were classified as persisters and the remaining 122 (87.8%) were classified as desisters.’ Almost 90 percent just … stopped.” 

Though the data itself has scientific backing, the article mingles data from foreign sources with attributions to conservative culture in the US. And though it mentioned laws against gender transition treatments, it does not attribute laws as a reason for the lowered rates. 

Some on the left highlighted alternate data. Them (Lean Left) described a 2022 study from Pediatrics: “Published this month in the medical journal Pediatrics, it reveals the findings of a five-year longitudinal study of trans youth conducted by Princeton University’s Trans Youth Project. Out of more than 300 young trans-identifying people aged 3-12, only 2.5% identified as cisgender at the end of the five-year period, with 94% identifying as trans girls or boys and 3.5% identifying as nonbinary.”

Others focused more on policy. The Advocate (Lean Left bias), for example, led its article with, “More than half of US transgender youth aged 13-17 live in a state with at least one law restricting their rights.”

It paraphrased a Williams Institute report that found, “An estimated 724,000 Americans in this age group identify as transgender, the institute notes. Of these, 382,800, 53 percent, live in one of the 29 states that has enacted one or more laws banning access to gender-affirming care, participation in sports, use of bathrooms and other sex-separated facilities, or gender affirmation through pronoun use.” 

Again, the data itself has scientific backing, but the outlet’s interpretation of the data suggests that the laws stifle access to gender transition treatments, rather than the culture upholding a purported desire for the law. In this view, children may fail to identify themselves as transgender out of fear for the laws’ impositions on their sociality, especially because they are not of voting age.

Unsubstantiated Claims/Mind Reading

The Advocate gave voice to Williams Institute Director Elana Redfield, who said, “Research consistently shows that supportive environments for transgender youth are associated with better mental health outcomes.” But the word “supportive” carries the subjectivity of an unsubstantiated claim, due to conflicting measures for “better mental health” (as is exemplified by the controversies surrounding conversion therapy and surgical transitions).

The Federalist juxtaposingly stated, “With media hyping transgender identity, the ‘caring professions’ like therapy and social work encouraging gender transition, and weak parents urgently supporting the mutilation of their ‘trans kids,’ desistance is still becoming a majority decision. Kids just quit. They quit, in good part, because it hurts.” In this case, suggesting that all children halt gender transition treatments because “it hurts” is an example of mind reading. The outlet asserted, “There’s just one group of people who are increasingly uninterested in pushing for more trans kids, and it’s trans kids themselves.”

What Do We Know About Why People Detransition?

One study published in the Journal of LGBTQ+ Mental Health following 957 LGBTQ+ participants via survey identified six reasons why people detransition. The six reasons were as follows: shifting conceptualization of gender norms or gender dysphoria, neurodiversity and mental health, satisfaction with transition, discrimination and lack of support, financial barriers and care restrictions, and transition dissatisfaction or treatment complications. 

The study found the most commonly reported reasons for detransition were as follows:

• Shifting conceptualization of gender and gender norms (52%)
• Changes in identity (47%)
• Lack of mental health improvement while transitioning (40%)
• Gender dysphoria resolving over time (41%)
• Discrimination (39%)
• Realizing that gender dysphoria was caused by something specific (i.e. trauma, abuse, autism) (39%)
• Continuing to be perceived as transgender (i.e. not “passing”) (31.7%)

It should be noted that the study was focused on adults rather than youth, and the sample included those who currently identify as transgender or nonbinary and those who no longer identify as transgender. The author added, “A substantial portion consider themselves ‘unsure’ on current trans/detrans/cisgender status, which is relatively common for people in a detransition process.” 

According to this study, the left is justified in highlighting that discrimination may be a factor in detransition rates, and the right is justified in pointing out that sometimes people realize that trauma or autism was the true cause of their dysphoria. 

Both sides seem to ignore some common reasons for detransitioning: that the person is simply satisfied with their transition and stops treatment; their ideology of gender and gender norms shift; or their perception of their own identity shifts. Some regret their transition and others don’t, for a variety of reasons. Still, many sources oversimplify by only noting discrimination or internal harm as the primary causes. 

What Are The Laws?

Federal Laws

Trump began enacting gender legislation reform on his first day back in office. His administration has notably spearheaded the following:

• Declaring the US will only recognize two sexes and directing federal officials to stop promoting gender transition treatments
• Banning trans-identifying individuals from military service
• Banning trans-identifying women and girls from women and girls’ sports
• Declaring the US will “not fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support” both chemical and surgical transition treatments for minors
• Investigating and suing numerous states, medical institutions, and education institutions accused of violating federal policies

RELATED: Track Trump’s Promises on Gender Transitions and Treatments | AllSides

State Laws

Sex Definition

In addition to Trump’s executive order “to recognize two sexes, male and female,” some states have laws relating specifically to the definitions of sex and gender. Alabama’s “What Is a Woman? Act,” for example, asserts, “There are only two sexes.” Other states, notably Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming, include similarly-worded legislation.

Pronouns 

Multiple states have laws aimed at mitigating the use of children’s chosen pronouns, with recent legislative actions in Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Indiana, and Kentucky have such laws as well. 

These laws, however, fall under a wide spectrum. Arkansas’ law, for example, prohibits the requirement of public educators “to use a person’s preferred pronoun, name, or title without parental consent; and for other purposes.” Meanwhile, Montana’s “Free to Speak Act” moreover prohibits public educators “from imposing disciplinary or other adverse actions on a student or employee who refuses to use certain speech.”

Alternatively, California passed the Support Academic Futures and Educators for Today’s Youth (SAFETY) Act in 2024, prohibiting educators from informing parents of their children’s chosen pronouns. 

Shield Laws

Eighteen states – Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington – along with Washington, DC, currently have gender-related “Shield Laws.” 

UCLA Law defines the shield laws as “legal protections for patients, health care providers, and people assisting in the provision of certain health care in states where that care is legal from the reach of states with civil, criminal, and professional consequences related to that care.” In short, such laws "shield" states in which gender transition treatments are legal from the legislation of states in which they are not.

California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Vermont and Washington most recently adopted gender-related shield laws in 2025.

RELATED: Democrats and Republicans Agree on Childcare Policy | AllSides

Points Of Consideration

Coverage of transgender youth often equates correlational data with causality that fits media’s biased narratives. Consequently, it is critical to remember that correlation never intrinsically equals causation. 

It is impossible to measure what every child wants or what influences them in that way. And it is impossible to say whether policies more substantially shift cultures, or vice versa. No data is able to fully capture the nuances of such a complex issue. 

But that won’t stop media from harnessing the ever-wily power of suggestion. 

Malayna J. Bizier is a News Analyst and Social Media Editor for AllSides. She has a Right bias.

This piece was reviewed and edited by Henry A. Brechter, Editor-in-chief (Center); Clare Ashcraft, Media Analyst and Product Manager (Center); Emily Allen, News Analyst and Social Media Editor (Left); and Emanuel Macuixtle, Policy Analyst and Research Assistant (Left).