The Insight: How the Iran War Affects You

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a short-lived conflict would likely only produce temporary price increases, while a prolonged war could lead to sustained inflation and broader economic consequences. 

Several financial institutions noted that global oil supply remains sufficient in the short-term and that energy prices could bounce back after shipping routes are restored. They also suggested that rising inflation and continued energy shocks would continue to raise the consumer prices of goods and services over the next year. 

This month, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% after the February jobs report was published and after oil prices rose. The latest Moody’s economic indicator model predicted a 49% chance of recession over the next year, with chances reaching over 50% when considering higher oil prices. 

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told Euronews (Center) that markets may be “underestimating” the Iranian war’s ability to disrupt global markets and damage the global economy. He noted that every US recession since World War II, apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. 

Despite these warnings, Zandi still emphasized that the string of weakened US job reports over the last few months indicate more consistent signs of recession unless the job market can somehow “hold its own.”

What are the chances of a prolonged war?

Some experts believe the Trump administration has fallen into the “escalation trap.” The Guardian (Left) reports that Trump is “mesmerized” by the “illusion of control,” and may double down with further attacks or efforts to control Iran. 

And while Trump “has promised the war will be over in ‘the very near future,’” per the Washington Examiner (Lean Right), “reports suggest that thousands of U.S. troops may soon be sent to the region as the war enters a new phase.”

The Guardian analysis suggested that Israel’s expansionist policy in the region may perpetuate conflict, as the Israeli defense minister ordered military expansion operations in Lebanon to counter Hezbollah forces. Terrorist attacks in the US, which are linked to US actions against Iran, heighten this prospect.

Amongst economic tensions, Iran is applying intense pressure tactics on the US by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, primarily to reduce US consumer sentiment about the conflict and build domestic US pressure for deescalation.

Where the US remains a daunting enemy to Iran’s limited military force, pressure on oil and trade are powerful tactics that harm public morale and opinion. Much like public pressures to deescalate the Vietnam War, increases in consumer prices and prolonged social and economic turmoil may lead to public pressure to deescalate conflict with Iran.

Iran has threatened to attack major energy hubs across west-Asia. In the first days of the war, the largest oil refinery in the world located in Saudi Arabia was struck by drones, while an industrial energy hub located in Qatar was bombed this week. 

These disruptions have worried nations around the world who receive oil and energy from the Middle East, while other resources such as fertilizer, methanol, NGLs (natural gas liquids) and LNG (liquified natural gas) are also largely produced there. 

Rumors over conflict between Turkey and the US have ramped up as the destabilization of the Iranian regime has posited a potential rise of Kurdish militant groups. The Kurdish people are settled in various regions of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, who for decades have called for independence and their own state sovereignty. 

The largest population of Kurds resides in Turkey, and a surge in military activity would threaten Turkish national security. To add to this dynamic, Turkey maintains a deep rivalry with Israel.

Will costs come down soon?

YES, there has only been a limited impact on the US economy. Prices may become manageable if conflict is short-lived.

• The IEA (International Energy Agency) unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to stabilize supply and prevent further price increases – a buffer that constrained the worst-case scenario of $100+ sustained oil prices. During the June 2025 “12-Day War” in Iran, crude oil prices rose ~10%, then returned to pre-conflict levels once fighting ended. If the current conflict resolves quickly, economists note prices tend to fall back.

NO, oil and gas prices are rising and have already hit household budgets.

• Gas prices are up sharply as Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut off roughly 20% of global oil supplies. Inflation acceleration is expected, with oil prices potentially pushing US inflation from 2.4% up toward 3% or higher in coming months.

NO, goods, flights, and materials have all hiked up in price due to transportation and input costs.

• Jet fuel prices have significantly increased since the conflict began, with certain airfares nearly tripling on affected routes. Air cargo disruptions are pushing up delivery costs for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and consumer goods. Industrial materials, such as aluminum, hit a four-year price high, raising input costs across transportation, construction, and packaging. Additional insurance premiums applied to cargo travelling through the region adds further costs throughout the supply chain.

Does Iran present an immediate national security threat? 

Iran has long been presented to Americans as a threat to national security by both authorities and mainstream media outlets.

For decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran is close to acquiring a nuclear weapon, and that it would threaten regional and global stability. Iran’s distaste for the United States has also been well-documented, with its regime often describing the US as the “Great Satan” and by chanting “Death to America.”

After a warning from Netanyahu in June 2025, amid Israeli strikes on the country, the Trump administration decided to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. At the time, Trump said the strikes “totally obliterated” the locations it struck, though some media outlets and the Iranian state pushed back on this.

A few weeks ago, on February 24, four days before the US bombed Iran again, the White House confirmed that the June operation was “overwhelmingly successful” and “did, in fact, obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities.”

Nonetheless, Trump has still claimed one of the US objectives in Iran is preventing the country from getting a nuclear weapon. In a video statement on February 28, Trump said, “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people… Iran is the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”

While any country that possesses a nuclear weapon could absolutely threaten the global balance of power, there have also been plenty of reports suggesting Iran is a threat to the US, particularly its interior, in other ways.

Reported Assassination Schemes on Trump

In 2024, on several different occasions, American intelligence agencies warned of Iranian assassination threats toward then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

In March 2024, the FBI warned that an Iranian intelligence officer was looking to assassinate members of Trump’s first administration.

After the assassination attempt on Trump in July 2024, the Secret Service told CNN (Lean Left) that it had beefed up security around Trump because it had received a tip weeks prior that Iran was planning to assassinate Trump.

Again, in September 2025, US intelligence told Trump that Iran had been consistently looking to assassinate him on US soil and had failed twice.

Days after Trump was elected president in November 2024, the Biden Justice Department charged an Iranian agent for instructing an Afghan national to come up with an assassination plot for Trump in October.

More Recently…

Since the US and Israel began bombing Iran a few weeks ago, there have been reports and warnings of potential threats to the homeland.

• Before the war began, FBI officials reportedly warned California that Iran could seek to attack it with drones.
• On March 9, federal agencies also warned of a potential sleeper cell threat in the homeland.
• On March 11, Iran reportedly launched a cyberattack against the US company Stryker.

Nonetheless, the Iranian regime does not appear to have measurably affected domestic security (yet). And one of the biggest stories this week was the resignation of National Counter Terrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who said he stepped down because, in his opinion, Iran posed “no imminent threat” to the US.

Will there be a draft?

A draft has not been authorized since 1980, but with looming threats from Iran, its proxies, and terrorism, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that all “options are on the table.” 

All men must register with the selective service within 30 days of turning 18 years old, and almost all men ages 18-25 can be conscripted. By current draft requirements, those eligible for the draft includes but is not limited to: religious clerics, those with disabilities, and unauthorized immigrants. Men aged 20 to 25 would be called first and 18 to 19 year olds would be called last, with a lottery system that would conscript draftees.

Leavitt said that the Iran conflict will continue and “‘will end when the Commander in Chief determines the military objectives have been met,” and the country is in “unconditional surrender.’” But this does not mean there will be a draft. 

A draft can only be invoked with congressional approval, and would only be considered if the US military had exhausted existing military personnel including the National Guard, reserves, volunteer service members, and other professional forces.

Many suggest a draft is not likely, and point out that the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts both included heavy ground troop presence and did not necessitate a draft. A senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said a draft “is opposed by the military, which wants volunteers; by the people, because it disrupts their lives; and by Congress, because it angers voters.”

How might the Iran war impact travel and immigration?

For obvious reasons, many airlines have suspended flights to and from the Middle East for the coming weeks because of the conflict, which has now widened to include Iranian strikes on Gulf states, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and a war between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, the main way travel stands to be affected is from rising energy prices. Outlets and onlookers alike have highlighted rising airfare costs.

As for immigration, mostly those from Middle Eastern countries looking to move to the US, or vice versa, are affected. Several US embassies in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon have closed.

The Trump administration’s most recent significant immigration measure affecting those traveling from the Middle East actually came before the war; In mid-January, the administration paused issuing visas to a list of 75 countries, with the stated aim of reducing strain on the American system.