This is an opinion from the Center.
I am not an expert in military matters, geopolitical affairs, or presidential megalomania. But after the decade that all of us have now had observing Donald Trump, it has become a little easier to see around the next corner.
Shortly after the beginning of the US war with Iran, I wrote the following in this space:
“Trump can… define ‘unconditional surrender’ in any way he chooses. So if the financial or military costs get too high (the price of oil hit $100 per barrel on Sunday night), he can simply declare victory, bring the troops home, and move on to his next adventure in Cuba.”
Just over 100 days later, it has become clear that Trump did define his promise with almost eerie precision. The war has now theoretically and perhaps temporarily concluded almost exactly the way he had predicted at its outset, with only one significant aberration. The unconditional surrender of which he spoke has been achieved not by the United States but by Iran.
The Iranian military is weakened but far from destroyed. After the death of one ayatollah, who was quickly replaced by another ayatollah, their nation’s leadership is largely intact. The current leaders have made familiarly nebulous promises about forsaking or delaying or hiding their nuclear program with even fewer enforcement tools available than Barack Obama extracted from them eleven years ago. Any effort to require Iran to eliminate its ballistic missile capability, its state sponsorship of terrorism, and its ruthless oppression of its own people has now disappeared. The U.S. and our allies have committed billions of dollars to assist in Iran’s rebuilding, much of which American intelligence believes will be diverted into revitalizing its military capabilities.
And for good measure, Iran is poised to impose tolls on ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz again in the near future, both re-establishing a chokehold over a global economic lifeline and instituting an additional source of revenue.
In return, Trump has achieved one critically important goal, which he identified himself last week in a news conference on the sidelines of the G7 summit last week.
“I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover,” the president told an international assemblage of reporters, making it clear that he needed to avoid the continuing economic difficulties caused by the war as the U.S. midterm elections draw closer. The spike in gasoline prices after the war began and the strait closed had unsettled American consumers and frightened Republican politicians. While Trump asserted a few weeks ago that he did not care about the midterms, his intervention in GOP primaries and his frequent references to the likelihood of a third impeachment if Democrats retake congressional majorities suggested that domestic political considerations were a major concern for him.
After the ceasefire was announced, gasoline prices quickly dropped, and the stock market rose just as quickly. The president and his allies loudly trumpeted the economic gains, but there has been considerable evidence over the last several days that the peace with Iran is precarious at best and that both renewed violence and accompanying economic pain could return at any time. Iran’s leaders know this: they have been carefully watching gas and food prices and midterm election polls since the war began, and Trump’s economic and political vulnerability have given them the confidence to withstand the brutal American and Israeli airstrikes they have been suffering. They are just as secure in their beliefs that Trump’s domestic challenges will prevent him from restarting the war and just as assured that there is almost nothing they can do that would force a military response from him. The Revolutionary Guard now has an almost unlimited free hand, and they know it.
Now that Trump has proclaimed an overwhelming victory, he will hope that decreased inflation will be of more tangible importance to the American people than the somewhat abstract damage of international embarrassment.
About a month into the war, this column began with the following sentences:
“For a few weeks now, Donald Trump has faced two clear options in the war with Iran. He can either escalate or capitulate. He has instead chosen a third option: to equivocate.”
In fact, Trump took all three of these steps. First, he equivocated. Then he threatened to escalate. But ultimately, he capitulated. In the weeks ahead, we’ll see which of these three options is the most viable next step for him.
Want to talk about this topic more? You can read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.
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