When Democrats Roll the Dice

This is an opinion from the Center. 

Those of us who came of age in the late 20th century grew up in a world in which we were limited by a finite set of options in almost every aspect of our lives. We knew there were three television networks, five buttons on the car radio, and two political parties. In today’s digital universe, we have now become accustomed to an unlimited range of possibilities from which we can access information, opinion, and entertainment. But when it comes to our politics, we are still confined to an increasingly unnatural binary choice—those same two parties.
 
In a society in which most of us demand more alternatives for our decisions, the struggles of both Democrats and Republicans to keep their supporters unified and moving in the same direction have become more obvious. The aberrational unity that the GOP has demonstrated since Donald Trump’s takeover of their party is starting to show its seams, as both traditional conservatives and even more fervent MAGA populists are beginning to position themselves for the upcoming post-Trump era. But it’s not surprising that the Democrats, both because of their status as the party without control of the White House and their historical tendencies for disagreement and discord, are currently facing a greater degree of internal conflict.
 
Last week’s column focused on the growing strength of the ultra-progressive Democratic Socialists of America, based on the DSA’s successes in several New York City congressional and legislative primaries. But equally impactful victories in Colorado this past Tuesday made it clear that the emergence of DSA Democrats is not unique to Big Apple politics but a much broader national phenomenon. Upcoming faceoffs in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Missouri present similar challenges to the party establishment. And the early August Senate primary in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed has received coveted endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders and maintains a narrow lead over his more centrist opponent. 

As the momentum within the Democratic Party continues to shift leftward, it’s helpful to examine which of the party’s voters have been most enthusiastic about the movement’s growing strength. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats who are especially excited by the DSA are their youngest members, as those born after the end of the Cold War are less likely to be troubled by references to socialism than their parents and grandparents, for whom the term brings back memories of the old Soviet Union.

Less predictable are the much stronger levels of DSA support among Democrats who are wealthier, better educated, and whiter. In other words, those voters who are less likely to benefit as directly from the type of redistributionist economic proposals toward which DSA candidates tend to gravitate. This reflects a longtime division within the party between white-collar Democrats who are more economically successful and socially progressive and working-class party regulars who are often culturally conservative. Many of these blue-collar Democrats defected to Trump in his two winning campaigns, and those who remain seem less entranced by their party’s new direction.

This dichotomy has existed for years and used to be known as the difference between wine drinkers and beer drinkers. The Democratic presidential candidates who have succeeded over the last several decades either came out of the Deep South states of Texas, Georgia, and Arkansas or the urban North cities of Chicago and Scranton. None of them came from a place of economic privilege and therefore were well-positioned to credibly bond with that blue-collar cohort. The defeated party nominees, on the other hand, all struggled to communicate with the beer drinkers in a natural and believable way, costing them their elections. This classist history was a major driving force in the Democrats’ last contested nomination fight when they consciously closed ranks behind Biden for precisely this reason. But they now seem poised to head in the opposite direction.

Republicans are borderline giddy over their opponents’ DSA-fueled move to the left. But there’s no way to predict how this will affect low-turnout midterm elections, in which turning out a party’s base of existing supporters is usually more important than appealing to undecided centrist voters. Even before the midterms are concluded, though, the 2028 presidential race will be coming into view. And the question as to whether Democratic wine drinkers can succeed in a way that they have not done since Franklin Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy will be one with which they will wrestle through the upcoming round of presidential primaries and beyond.

Want to talk about this topic more? You can read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.