When California Calms Down

This is an opinion from the Center. 

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the lessons to be learned from the politics of my home state of Wisconsin for this fall’s midterm campaigns. Today, let’s look at my adopted home of California for similar clues for the 2028 presidential race. 

Unlike swing state Wisconsin, which has helped decide the last three presidential elections, California is deep blue, bordering on indigo, and will assuredly provide the Democratic nominee with its 54 electoral votes. But those dominant Democrats are in the process of selecting their next governor this year, and the criteria they use to select their preferred successor to Gavin Newsom should tell us a great deal about the way their national party may be thinking about their first steps into a post-Trump era. 

The field has winnowed slightly after the forced withdrawal of former Representative Eric Swalwell, and a regular series of debates are underway, and it’s now becoming easier to see how Democratic voters will consider the ideological alternatives before them. For those who would like their state to move further to the left, there are fervent progressives such as billionaire activist Tom Steyer and former Representative Katie Porter to take them there. Those who prefer a shift to the center can cast their ballots for San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.  And for those who desire the status quo to remain in place with no noticeable change of direction, former US Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra has emerged as the safest, least disruptive, and most soothing candidate in the race. 

Becerra was languishing in low single digits in most public opinion polls, while leading Democrats seemed intrigued by Swalwell’s aggressive outsider persona. But when revelations about Swalwell’s noxious personal behavior drove him from the race, many of the party’s leaders and donors began to reconsider the need for an exciting and inflammatory presence at the top of the ticket. Becerra’s status quo agenda and leaden personality began to seem much more appealing.

Think of Becerra’s candidacy as this year’s version of the 2020 Biden campaign. Few Democrats were genuinely inspired by the former vice president. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren lit up progressive hearts, and Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, Amy Klobuchar, and (briefly) Kamala Harris all took their turns in the spotlight. But anxious Democrats stuck with reliable and responsible Biden, recognizing that the stakes were too high to venture into a general election campaign against Donald Trump with a more exciting but potentially riskier option.

Because of California’s strong partisan leanings, the leading Democrat who emerges from the state’s unique top-two primary next month will almost certainly take office in January. So the hyper-prudence that led the national party back to Biden six years ago does not seem to be necessary. But Swalwell’s self-immolation was a near-death experience for the Democrats here, and even though this state will probably see an independent governor before its next Republican, the safety-first instincts of those who benefit most from continuing the current trajectory of state government have grown much stronger in recent weeks.

In less than two years, Democrats across the country will be facing a similar set of decisions. Do they want a young and energizing fresh face in the mold of Kennedy, Clinton, or Obama who can chart a dramatically different course for their party and their country? Or will they choose a more familiar leader, who may be less inspiring but can be trusted with the keys for a less exhilarating but more comforting drive into the future, as they did with Biden—and might with Becerra?

In other parts of the country, they appear to be leaning toward the exciting and the unfamiliar. Graham Platner’s ascension in the Maine Senate race and other similarly non-establishment candidates in Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota suggest a move toward something new and different. Becerra’s rise suggests just the opposite.

Newsom, Harris, and perhaps two dozen other potential Democratic standard-bearers are pondering these questions right now. The party’s primary season will be not only a contest of ideas and issues, but of temperament and disposition. Some candidates will raise the roof and wake the echoes, but Democrats might still decide that a reassuring bedside manner might be better and more therapeutic for them after eight consistently tremulous and often terrifying years of Trump.

Want to talk about this topic more? Join Dan for his webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report." And read more of Dan’s writing at: www.danschnurpolitics.com.