Final Projections Point to Republicans Winning Control of Congress
Summary from the AllSides News Team
In headlines across the spectrum on 2022 Election Eve, a common theme is that Republicans seem slightly favored to win control of Congress.
What the Polls and Analysts Say: Many major polls suggest a close Senate race, and most project Republicans to win by a slight margin. Most also expect Republicans to win control of the House of Representatives comfortably. The AllSides interactive 2022 midterm elections forecasting model gives Republicans an 80% chance of taking the House and a 66% chance in the Senate.
For Context: It's always possible that polls are overstating enthusiasm. But Republicans have slowly gained momentum in key races, voters are upset with inflation, and the sitting president's party traditionally performs poorly in midterm elections.
How the Media Covered It: Right-rated sources focused mainly on GOP optimism heading into Tuesday. Some left- and center-rated sources, such as The Hill (Center bias), did as well. CNN's homepage Monday was notably focused on House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) plans if Republicans win. Both Wall Street Journal and Axios (Center bias) highlighted growing support for Republicans among black and Latino voters. Some left- and center-rated sources instead focused on signs of Democrats "catching up" to the GOP or staging a "surprise" on Election Day, and many highlighted how results may take days or weeks to be fully counted. NBC News's (Lean Left bias) lead story Monday said a "spiral of violence and fear is creating angst for many voters" ahead of the elections.
Featured Coverage of this Story
From the Left
Democrats confront their nightmare scenario on election eve as economic concerns overshadow abortion and democracy worriesDemocrats close their midterm election campaign Monday facing the nightmare scenario they always feared – with Republicans staging a gleeful referendum on Joe Biden’s struggling presidency and failure to tame inflation.
Hopes that Democrats could use the Supreme Court’s overturning of the right to an abortion and a flurry of legislative wins to stave off the classic midterm election rout of a party in power are now a memory. Biden faces a dark political environment because of the 40-year-high in the cost of living – and his hopes of a swift rebound next year...
From the Center
Polls favor GOP to win control of House, but upset possibleControl of the U.S. House is up for grabs on election night and the simple math favors Republicans. It’s not just polling. Democrats are defending more seats in tough districts than Republicans are.
Only a small handful of really competitive races, of which there are dozens, need to flip from blue to red for the GOP to control the House.
Democrats’ current majority in the House sits at just five seats.
It’s a historically small margin which, according to the polls, Democrats are expected to lose this Tuesday.
Out of...
From the Right
Midterm Predictions: The ‘Red Tsunami’ Comes into View Once MoreI guess I’ve put off my election predictions for as long as I can. I usually prefer to hold off until right before Election Day, because you never know when some October surprise — or more accurately, a November surprise — will come along and change the dynamic, or give those last few undecided voters a reason to break a certain way.
But I think one of the big stories of the 2022 midterms is how much the dynamics didn’t change. This looked like a big GOP wave year back in the...
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