Perspectives: Trump's Re-election Chances
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From the Right
Trump’s Chances for Reelection Are Looking Better and BetterDonald Trump has at least five strong historical arguments for his reelection.
One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 reelection bids since 1900.
The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this month, Trump enjoyed his highest approval rating since his inauguration, squeezing out a 49 percent favorable rating vs. 50 percent unfavorable.
Two, the public perception of the economy usually determines any presidential election — as incumbents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, and...
From the Right
A coronavirus recession would likely end Trump's presidencyThe global coronavirus outbreak might accomplish something that myriad bad polls haven't: make Republicans fear losing the 2020 presidential election.
Until now, survey after survey has consistently shown President Trump losing to the Democrats in November. Like, to all of the Democrats. Yet Republicans have remained confident. They remember how the #FakePolls showed Trump losing to Hillary Clinton four years ago. More importantly, perhaps, GOPers have a deep faith that the strong economy will provide a powerful tailwind to Trump's re-election campaign.
But the plunging stock market, badly spooked by...
From the Left
Bernie Sanders Can Beat Trump. Here’s the Math.Most available evidence points in the direction of a popular vote and Electoral College victory.
Whatever you think about Bernie Sanders as a potential president, it is wrong to dismiss his chances of winning the office. Not only does most of the available empirical evidence show Mr. Sanders defeating President Trump in the national popular vote and in the critical Midwestern states that tipped the Electoral College in 2016, but his specific electoral strengths align with changes in the composition of the country’s population in ways that could actually make...
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April 19th, 2024
April 19th, 2024