Economists Expect Inflation to Continue in 2021, Remain High for Several Years
AllSides Summary
A majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predict that inflation will continue to rise in 2021 and will remain high for the next several years.
Seventy-one percent of the 48 economists surveyed predict that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) minus food and energy will not drop below the Federal Reserve's year-over-year target rate of 2% until the second half of 2023 or later. A majority of those surveyed also estimate that inflation will rise 4.1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2021. Eighty-seven percent of the economists cited supply chain issues as a reason for high inflation, and 76% cited strong consumer demand. Sixty-nine percent said continued wage growth was a reason why inflation wouldn't fall below the 2% target rate for the next three years. Fifty-eight percent of panelists expect supply chain issues to begin easing in the first half of 2022.
Right-rated outlets highlighted the news prominently Monday. Left- and center-rated outlets did not. Some reports from the right framed the prediction as a negative reflection on President Joe Biden's handling of the economy. Some left- and center-rated outlets republished the AP's report, but most didn't offer their own coverage.
Featured Coverage of this Story
From the Left
US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years
Americans hoping for near-term relief from soaring prices got a dose of disappointment on Monday after a panel of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) significantly ramped up their expectations for inflation since they were last canvassed in September.
Nearly three quarters – 71 percent – of the 48 economists surveyed see the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy – not falling to or below the Fed’s 2-percent year-over-year target rate “until the second half of 2023 or later,”...
From the Left
Survey: Business economists foresee persistent inflation WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s business economists have sharply raised their forecasts for inflation, predicting an extension of the price spikes that have resulted in large part from bottlenecked supply chains.
A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics found that its panel of forecasters expects consumer prices to rise 6% this quarter compared with a year ago. That marks an increase from the 5.1% inflation the forecasters predicted in September for the same 12-month period.
Eighty-seven percent of the panelists have identified supply chain bottlenecks as...
From the Right
Economists dial up inflation targets amid rising wages, strong consumer demand: NABE
Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics are predicting that annual inflation will remain above 2% over the next three years as a result of rising wages and strong demand for goods and services.
NABE panelists project that the overall consumer price index will rise 6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to September's forecast of 5.1%. CPI inflation is expected to remain elevated by the end of 2022 at 2.8% year-over-year, compared to September's forecast of 2.4%.
The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy,...
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