The odds of an immediate Fed rate cut are falling

If you listened to a lot of market commentary a month ago, you would have gotten the sense that an early 2024 interest rate cut was a sure thing. Now, it's looking more like a coin flip.

Why it matters: When the easing cycle begins — whether it turns out to be March or later — it will be a meaningful signal that a period of aggressive monetary tightening has ended and Fed officials are comfortable that inflation is at a low risk of flaring up again.

Indeed, it's precisely...