Is this a soft landing or the start of a recession?

What goes up must come down — in fame, in politics, in power, and, like it or not, in the economy. The question is just what the down part will look like. Will it be a crash or a gentle return to earth?

For months, the looming quandary has been what will get the United States economy — which has seen surprisingly steady employment numbers and a plague of inflation — back to normal. The conventional wisdom is generally that this necessitates a recession: The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates so much that eventually,...