Calcified Politics Gives Us Another Close Election
Just as Democrats did in 2020, Republicans came into the 2022 midterms expecting a landslide. Sky-high inflation, an unpopular President, and pessimism about the direction of the country all pointed to a 'typical' midterm romp for the party out of power.
But, as we have written extensively over the last two years, other fundamentals matter in our politics; fundamental structural realities make 'landslide' elections harder and harder to come by.
First, as I wrote earlier this fall (citing the amazing work of political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck), events...